Is the MSO Boom Over?

by Alana Quartuccio

It didn’t exactly happen overnight. But at some point, corporate consolidation in the collision repair space went from a subtle hiss to a jolting thunderclap in the Garden State. And just like that…the MSOs were here to stay.

At first, it seemed like MSOs were just lurking in the shadows and peeking around corners. They were known to take hold in far off places like California and Texas, but before long, recognizable corporate names like Caliber and Crash Champions popped up everywhere in this state, decorating the map of New Jersey like a giant fireworks display.

In the wake of the boom, independent shop owners feared what a potential threatening predator could mean for the industry. But as the dust settled, there were many who began to view these corporations as a pathway into retirement.

The consolidation footprint realistically began decades ago, but later increased rapidly as more consolidators joined the market even as the more established MSOs continued to make their way across the country.

According to Focus Advisors’ “2024 Year in Review: Some Excel on a Bumpy Road,” (see bit.ly/FocusAdvisorsReview2024) the “Big Five” (Caliber Collision, Classic Collision, Crash Champions, Gerber Collision and Joe Hudson’s Collision Center) added 319 shops in 2024, comprising more than $15.6 billion in annual revenue which made up approximately 30 percent of the industry’s market share.

Then things took a different turn in 2025.

Focus Advisors reported in its “Year in Review 2025: Slowdown, and Then a Blockbuster” (see bit.ly/FocusAdvisorsReview2025) a significant slowdown of acquisitions compared to previous years even affecting the “Big Five.”

An exception came in the form of consolidation in the consolidation space: Boyd Group/Gerber announced its merger with Joe Hudson’s last November, a move which Focus Advisors called “a spectacular event in an otherwise disappointing year for M&A.”

Most recently, Focus Advisors published “2026 Mid-Year Review: Different Drivers, Different Gears” (see bit.ly/FocusAdvisorsmidyear2026) noting that despite earlier predictions that the collision consolidation world would see more transactions than years past, the start of the year has seen fewer transactions but more small buyer activity.

Could this shift mean it’s game over for consolidation in the collision repair space?

“Anyone calling the end of consolidation is mistaking a pause for a peak,” says Russell Thrall III, publisher and editor-in-chief of CollisionWeek. “Carriers shed earned car years amid post-pandemic premium inflation while claim frequency continued to fall. The unwinding of the pandemic-era surge in used car values has pushed more claims into total losses, shrinking the pool of repairable claims that drives shop earnings.”

“Our sources say acquisition multiples are holding steady, but lower earnings have dramatically reduced sale prices – likely keeping would-be sellers on the sidelines waiting for better financial results,” he continues. “We’ve watched waves of consolidation since the 1990s, and every pause has been followed by a larger wave — this is a low point in a long-term trend toward more consolidation, not less.”

In New Jersey, “MSO activity is just as hot as it’s been,” according to Laura Gay (Consolidation Coach). “It’s also still just as hot across the whole United States minus Texas and California, which has been a little cool.”

She acknowledges things slowed down last year but that lull appears to have ended. “We’re busier than we’ve been in a year. This time last year, things did hit a wall and there was a lot of uncertainty but now things are full steam ahead.”

VIVE Collision entered the New Jersey market back in 2022 with Compact Auto Body in Matawan and Middletown. Today, VIVE has 16 locations in New Jersey and 80 locations across the Northeast.

CEO Vartan Jerian says the company is definitely not done in New Jersey. “We like the market and we would absolutely continue to grow there with the right opportunities,” he states. “At the same time, our goal isn’t to plant a VIVE flag everywhere we can. It’s about continuing to build density intelligently and finding businesses and people that fit who we are.”

Jerian says New Jersey is a natural market for VIVE. “We started VIVE in the Northeast, and our strategy has always been about building density in markets where we believe we can be a great long-term operator. What I really like about New Jersey is the quality of the independent operators. There are a lot of great family-owned businesses that have spent decades building their reputation, their teams and relationships within their communities. Our goal isn’t to come in and change everything that made those businesses successful. We want to preserve that history and culture, support the people, and then bring the resources of a larger organization behind them.”

“I don’t believe the MSO ‘boom’ is necessarily over,” Jerian adds. “I think it’s changing. The next chapter of consolidation is going to require more discipline. Just acquiring locations isn’t enough. You have to be able to operate them, invest in the people, develop leaders, build strong relationships with insurers and OEMs, and continue adapting to how quickly vehicle technology is changing.”

“I don’t think it’s over, but I believe the landscape will look different going forward than it has in recent years,” explains AASP/NJ President Ken Miller. “We are likely to see more of the smaller players enter the MSO space, acquiring individual shops before the larger MSOs begin consolidating those groups. Rather than major operators purchasing single locations directly, smaller, lesser-known groups may build portfolios first and eventually become acquisition targets for the larger MSOs.”

Another recognized brand in New Jersey is CARSTAR. Its first location in the Garden State opened in 2018. A CARSTAR spokesperson states, “As CARSTAR is a franchise business, all locations are independently owned and operated; however, in identifying that there was a need for stores in the New Jersey markets, we began targeting growth in this region at that time and have grown our locations throughout the last eight years in this area.”

Currently, there are 19 open and operating CARSTAR locations in New Jersey.

For VIVE and its presence in New Jersey, Jerian says, “New Jersey has become a very important part of our platform, and we’ve been fortunate to partner with some really outstanding operators and teams throughout the state.”

When asked if things have slowed down at all, Jerian reports that VIVE has always been very selective and disciplined. “When you’re building a company, especially early on, you’re establishing your footprint and creating density. As we’ve grown to 80 locations, our focus has evolved but nothing has slowed down for us. Every acquisition needs to make sense financially, operationally and, probably most importantly to me, culturally. We’re not interested in growing just to say we have more locations. We want great businesses with great people where we believe VIVE can add value. Sometimes that means moving quickly and sometimes it means being patient. I’d rather do the right deal with the right partner than just do another deal.”

Does CARSTAR believe more shops will take on their brand in New Jersey? A CARSTAR spokesperson reports, “Being a franchise business, CARSTAR continues to evaluate growth opportunities across New Jersey and remains interested in partnering with high-quality collision repair facilities that align with the organization’s values and operational standards. New Jersey remains an important market for the brand, and CARSTAR believes there is continued opportunity to expand its presence and better serve customers throughout the state. We remain focused on strategic growth in markets where there is strong demand and opportunities to support local business owners.

It’s surely no secret that collision repair has its fair share of challenges, so what makes it a viable investment opportunity?

Gay believes the third-party payer model and the cash flow make the industry attractive to consolidators. Also, these investors tend to see great opportunity in  service-related businesses. “It takes a human to fix a car; you can’t get AI to do it. Any business like collision, roofing, heating/AC or plumbing that is AI-proof is red hot.”

Jerian recognizes the challenges that come with collision repair but he remains confident. “I have been in this industry basically my entire life, and I still love this business. It’s certainly not getting easier. Claim frequency has been under pressure, total losses have increased and today’s vehicles are dramatically more complex than they were even five or 10 years ago. ADAS, calibrations, EVs, OEM repair procedures and the technology required to properly repair a vehicle have completely changed what it takes to operate a collision repair business. But that’s also where I see the opportunity.

“The operators that invest in their people, training, technology and processes are going to be positioned to win long term,” he continues. “Scale gives us the ability to make those investments while still keeping the local relationships and culture that made these businesses successful in the first place. At VIVE we talk about people, process and passion all the time. If we take care of our people, give them the right processes and tools, and keep the passion that exists in this industry, I believe there is a tremendous future in collision repair.”

Industry challenges are seen as opportunities at CARSTAR as well. “While collision repair continues to evolve with advancements in vehicle technology, repair procedures, and insurer requirements, these same factors create opportunities for well-positioned operators,” says a CARSTAR spokesperson. “Modern vehicles require increasingly specialized repair expertise, advanced equipment and ongoing technician training. CARSTAR helps independent owners navigate these challenges by providing access to national purchasing power, OEM and insurance relationships, operational best practices, marketing support, and training resources. Additionally, collision repair remains an essential service. Vehicles involved in accidents still need to be repaired regardless of broader economic conditions, making the industry resilient and attractive for long-term investment.”

“I believe consolidators are going to continue to keep growing,” Gay predicts. “ I think you will see some medium fish get eaten by bigger fish.” She believes there will be some big announcements likely to come out of SEMA later this year and points to new regional MSO brands like Collision Partners (which recently purchased K&M Collision in Hickory, NC, known for its high quality service and customer service) as “ones to watch.”

“Collision Partners are unique because they are privately funded at this point so they don’t have private equity pushing heat down on their shoulders to grow and grow.” She notes they are looking to build a brand based on what K&M Collision was known for: non-DRP, high-end, high-quality OEM certified repair facilities.

“I could see ‘MSO boom’ being defined in different ways, but in general I don’t see the growth of MSOs being over, even if the pace slows,” weighs in John Yoswick of CRASH Network. “The financial model behind much of it will drive its continued growth. Private equity funds typically invest in a business for what they prefer to be a set period – often four to seven years – and have a goal for the return on their investment during that period. That return is usually largely predicated on growth of the business in which they’ve invested. So that’s going to drive those companies (and their financial backers) to find ways to grow.

“Those growth goals aren’t always successful,” he added. “The New York Times recently reported that private equity funds have more than 33,000 unsold companies in their portfolios. There’s a variety of reasons for that, including in some cases they aren’t able to sell them at the level of return they are seeking. So not every investment in collision repair MSOs will necessarily succeed. But those could then be attractive acquisitions for other MSOs, helping keep the overall growth of the MSO segment going.”

A CARSTAR spokesperson weighed in on current and future growth: “CARSTAR’s growth strategy remains focused on expanding its network through both new franchise partnerships and additions of existing collision repair businesses. While market conditions can vary year to year, we continue to see strong interest from independent operators looking to leverage the advantages of a national brand while maintaining ownership. CARSTAR prioritizes strategic growth that strengthens market coverage and supports long-term success for franchise partners.”

Gay suggests offers and deals from consolidators are just as strong as they once were. “I’m not trying to get people to sell, but if one is in position to retire and is ready to sell, it may be something to be open-minded to.”

Jerian shares his outlook on the big picture of the collision repair space and where VIVE stands. “There will always be challenges in this industry, and we’re certainly seeing some today,” he observes. “But I’m still very bullish on collision repair and on VIVE’s future. We have 80 locations today, and I still feel like we’re just getting started.”

Thrall offers some words of wisdom to those who may be in position to sell to an MSO: “My advice to shop owners hasn’t changed in two decades: focus on the top line, the bottom line and CSI, leveraging resources like your association’s training and peer network. Outperform the market and you’re earning a better return than most of your competitors while increasing the value of your business if you ever decide to exit.”

Want more? Check out the September 2026 issue of New Jersey Automotive!