Where Did All the Work Go?
by Ken Miller, AASP/NJ President
If you’re in the collision repair business today, you don’t need a spreadsheet to tell you something’s off – you can feel it in your schedule, in your lot, in your bottom line.
Repair volume is down, and this time, it’s not just seasonal. Across the country, shops are reporting emptier bays, lighter weeks and growing concern about what’s really going on. The question being asked in every shop office and 7am team huddle is the same: Where did the work go?
We’re dealing with a convergence of challenges that no one could’ve predicted just a few years ago. First and foremost: ADAS. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems are doing their job – reducing minor and moderate collisions. These systems are increasingly effective at preventing the kind of low-speed accidents that once made up a significant chunk of our business. And while we’re still seeing repairs, those jobs are fewer and more complex. A bumper job now involves multiple sensor calibrations, module resets and OEM procedures that didn’t exist a decade ago.
And yet, as complexity and labor hours increase, another trend is working directly against us: insurance carriers are pushing down reimbursement rates. We’re seeing tighter approvals, lower labor allowances and more resistance on necessary operations – especially when it comes to calibrations and OEM procedures. So, not only are shops doing more to repair these technologically advanced vehicles – we’re being paid less, or having to fight harder, to get reimbursed fairly.
This is happening at the same time many shops have made massive investments to stay relevant and certified in this new repair environment. Between ADAS diagnostic tools, recalibration systems, OEM training and facility upgrades, the cost of doing business has skyrocketed. We’ve built the infrastructure to meet the demands of modern collision repair – but now we’re facing a drop in volume and downward pressure on rates. It’s a dangerous gap, and it’s widening.
The post-COVID world has added another layer of complexity. Driving habits have changed dramatically. More people are working remotely, commuting less and putting fewer miles on their cars. That means fewer opportunities for accidents. It’s not just anecdotal – it’s measurable. Add to that the economic unease many households are feeling; therefore, people are making different decisions when it comes to vehicle repair. Premiums are higher, deductibles are rising, and there’s real fear around filing a claim. Some customers are deferring repairs altogether. Others are trying to pay cash to avoid reporting a claim to their insurer. That’s a behavioral shift we haven’t seen before at this scale.
So, let’s take stock: fewer vehicles coming in, more expensive and time-consuming repairs, reduced reimbursement from insurers and higher operating costs due to necessary investments. That’s the landscape. And it’s forcing every shop operator to ask a hard question: How are we going to stay profitable in a world where everything costs more – but fewer vehicles are being repaired, and we’re getting paid less to fix them?
Some shops are already making adjustments: adopting new marketing ideas or diversifying into in-house ADAS calibrations, cosmetic and PDR work, while others are doubling down on DRP relationships or seeking out niche certifications. But not every shop has the volume, capital or geographic market to pivot that quickly. For many, the math just isn’t adding up like it used to.
This is the new reality. We’re not headed back to the collision industry of the early 2010s. We’re operating in an environment where fewer people are crashing, fewer are claiming and the cost to repair each vehicle is being scrutinized more than ever – by customers and carriers.
There’s still a future here – but it’s going to belong to the operators who are smart, efficient and bold enough to change. We have to create value where we can, maximize efficiency and advocate – relentlessly – for fair reimbursement.
Because if the cars aren’t coming back the way they used to, we can’t afford to run our businesses the way we used to either.
Want more? Check out the May 2025 issue of New Jersey Automotive!