Plunge in Repair-Age Sweet-Spot Vehicles to 2030 and Beyond
New vehicle sales in the U.S. are still reeling from the impact of COVID-19 and related developments.
Annual sales of new cars and light trucks plunged nearly 20 percent between 2020 and 2022. Over the past four years, there has been a modest recovery, but the new vehicle market is likely to struggle through the rest of the decade compared with the record-breaking sales years from 2015 to 2019. This historic downturn in new vehicle sales has had significant consequences for the aftermarket, and its impact will continue through 2030, especially on the nation’s VIO (vehicles in operation).
In addition to the number of cars and light trucks on the road, the struggling new vehicle market has significant consequences for populations in specific vehicle age categories, especially the repair-age sweet-spot. Vehicles in this age group have a disproportionate impact on aftermarket volume due to their above-average vehicle repair rates compared to older and younger light vehicles. The population of repair-age sweet-spot cars and light trucks will plunge in the U.S. between now and 2030, and beyond.
The Struggling New Vehicle Market: 2020 to 2030 and Beyond
Sales of new cars and light trucks were hit hard by COVID-19, with annual volume plunging nearly 20 percent between 2020 and 2022.
Following record-high new vehicle sales in the five years previous to 2020, several additional factors, some related to COVID-19, have undercut the new vehicle market, depressing sales through 2025: soaring new-model prices, sputtering BEV sales and challenging economic conditions for younger generations.
Consequently, new vehicle sales were down by more than 11 million units from 2020 to 2025 compared with the average annual sales from 2015 to 2019.
Unfortunately, relief is not in sight, and annual sales are expected to average no more than 16.2 million cars and light trucks from 2026 to 2030, more than one million below the average annual sales from 2015 to 2019.
This extended downturn in new sales of cars and light trucks will reshape the size and age mix of the nation’s VIO. The aftermarket will be affected by these changes, particularly the vehicle repair-age sweet spot, which has historically played a key role in light-vehicle repair volume in both the do-it-yourself and do-it-for-me sectors.
Vehicle Repair-Age Sweet-Spot
Not all automotive age groups contribute equally to aftermarket volume per vehicle.
Sales of some aftermarket parts, such as accessories, are concentrated in the first few years of vehicle operation, or when a new owner acquires a pre-owned vehicle.
However, replacement parts (parts necessary for vehicle operation) depend on vehicle use and the resulting wear and tear to drive aftermarket demand. The repair-age sweet-spot is the group of vehicle ages with the highest average rates of replacement product use (and of other products necessary for vehicle operation).
Sweet-Spot Age Boundaries Expansion
For many years, the aftermarket repair-age sweet spot for light vehicles in the U.S. was six to 10 years old.
However, several factors have made it necessary to revise these age boundaries: the increased durability of new vehicles and their components, changes in annual automotive mileage and odometer readings and changes in the total yearly miles traveled by older vehicles.
Due to these factors, Lang Marketing has revised the age boundaries of the repair-age sweet-spot in its aftermarket analyses to six to 12 years for cars and light trucks in the U.S.
Fewer Sweet-Spot Vehicles
In 2027, the number of light vehicles in the repair-age sweet-spot will begin a significant, prolonged decline through 2030.
The consequences of plunging new vehicle sales from 2020 through 2025 (down significantly compared to 2016 through 2019) are working their way through the vehicle population and heading toward the repair-age sweet spot.
Lang Marketing estimates that at mid-year 2030, the population of the repair-age sweet spot will be eight million vehicles below mid-year 2026, a seven percent reduction.
By 2032, the repair-age sweet-spot population will shrink by nearly 10 million, down almost nine percent from 2026, in this age range of cars and light trucks, which is critical to generating aftermarket volume.
VIO Up and Sweet-Spot Down
The nation’s VIO (vehicles in operation) and its repair-age sweet-spot population are moving in opposite directions. Lang Marketing projects that the VIO will climb by about 11 million between 2026 and 2032. At the same time, the number of cars and light trucks in the vehicle-repair sweet-spot will shrink by about 10 million.
Since new vehicle sales will remain modest for much of this period, most of the VIO growth will be among vehicles over 12 years old.
Aftermarket Impact
At first glance, the shrinking size of the repair-age sweet-spot, both in number and share of the nation’s VIO, would seem to spell trouble for future light vehicle aftermarket growth across the country.
However, Lang Marketing believes the opposite will occur. Changes in the nation’s VIO, annual mileage by vehicle age, higher accumulated mileage on vehicles, and other factors will combine to fuel the aftermarket growth in the U.S., despite a lack of repair-age sweet-spot VIO growth.
How the Aftermarket will Grow, and Challenges will Develop
While some aftermarket products, such as accessories, could suffer reductions in annual growth rates from struggling with new vehicle sales, the aftermarket, as a whole, will perform well in the coming years, despite the shrinking number of vehicles in the aftermarket sweet-spot.
However, some of the factors driving this growth will pose logistical and inventory challenges for aftermarket businesses.
Six Major Takeaways
• Approximately 20 percent fewer new cars and light trucks were sold from 2020 through 2022 compared to the previous five years. New vehicle sales were down significantly from 2020 through 2025, and relief is not in sight. Annual sales are expected to average no more than 16.2 million from 2026 to 2030, more than one million below the average annual sales from 2015 to 2019.
• Sales of some aftermarket products, such as accessories, are concentrated in the first few years of vehicle operation, or when a new owner acquires a pre-owned vehicle. However, vehicle use over many years and the resulting wear and tear generate aftermarket demand for most aftermarket products, especially replacement parts.
• Not all automotive age groups contribute equally to aftermarket volume per vehicle. The automotive repair-age sweet-spot is the group of vehicle ages with the highest average rates of aftermarket product use. For many years, the aftermarket repair-age sweet-spot in the U.S. encompassed automobiles aged six to 10 years.
• Several factors have made it necessary to revise the sweet-spot age boundaries: the increased durability of new vehicles and their components, changes in annual automotive mileage and odometer readings and changes in the total yearly miles traveled by older vehicles, among others. Consequently, Lang Marketing has expanded the age boundaries of the repair-age sweet-spot in its aftermarket analyses to six to 12 years for cars and light trucks in the U.S.
• In 2026, the number of vehicles in the repair-age sweet-spot will begin a significant, prolonged decline through 2030 and beyond. At mid-year 2030, the population of the repair-age sweet-spot will be nearly eight million vehicles below mid-year 2026, a seven percent reduction. By 2032, the repair-age sweet-spot will have plunged by nearly 10 million vehicles, down nearly nine percent from 2026, in the automotive age range critical to generating aftermarket volume.
• The shrinking size of the repair-age sweet-spot, both in number and share of the nation’s VIO, would seem to spell trouble for future light vehicle aftermarket growth across the country. However, Lang Marketing believes the opposite will occur, but some of the factors driving this aftermarket growth will pose logistical and other challenges for aftermarket participants.
Want more? Check out the July 2026 issue of AASP-MN News!