Minnesota Election Preview: Open Governor’s Race, Closely Divided Legislature Set the Stakes for 2026
by Sam Richie, AASPMN Lobbyist
With the governor’s office open and every legislative seat on the ballot, Minnesota voters will decide whether divided government continues at the Capitol.
Overview
Minnesota’s 2026 election is shaping up as a test of continuity, competence and control. The governor’s race moved from a likely referendum on incumbent leadership to a true open-seat contest after Gov. Tim Walz ended his reelection bid. At the same time, the Legislature enters the fall with margins so narrow that a handful of districts could determine whether the next governor works with a friendly majority like we saw after the 2022 election or if divided government will prevail like we experienced after the 2024 election.
The issues are familiar but feel more intense on the campaign trail: affordability, taxes, fraud prevention, public safety, health care costs, school safety and the long-term direction of state spending.
The Governor’s Race
While a U.S. Senate seat is also on the ballot, the open governor’s race is the marquee contest with respect to Minnesota state politics. U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar is the DFL nominee, bringing high name recognition, a long statewide electoral record and a campaign message centered on results, affordability, housing, health care and fraud prevention. Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth enters the general election as a prominent legislative leader who is emphasizing affordability, tax relief, government accountability and a sharper response to misuse of public funds.
Both candidates offer voters a first: either would become Minnesota’s first woman elected governor. For Democrats, the challenge is to defend a governorship the party has held since 2011, while separating the nominee from fatigue over one-party control and recent fraud related controversies. For Republicans, the opportunity is an open seat in a state where the party has not won any statewide office since 2006, but the challenge is to broaden appeal beyond the party’s base in a state that still leans DFL in statewide races.
Most Capitol observers expect the campaign to turn on three questions: whether voters see Klobuchar as a steady statewide figure or as part of the status quo; whether Demuth can translate legislative leadership into a credible statewide profile; and whether concerns about affordability and fraud are strong enough to overcome Minnesota’s recent Democratic advantage in statewide contests.
The Legislature: Control on a Knife’s Edge
The legislative races may be less visible than the governor’s contest, but they are just as consequential. All 201 seats are on the ballot. The House has recently been split 67-67, while the Senate has operated with a narrow 34-33 DFL majority. That means control could hinge on a small number of competitive districts, especially in suburban communities, the Iron Range, regional centers and fast-changing exurban areas.
Republicans are framing the campaign around taxes, spending, fraud prevention, public safety and the cost of living. Democrats will point to recent investments in education, health care, labor protections, reproductive rights and family economic security, while warning that GOP control would roll back those priorities. In many districts, however, hyperlocal issues – ambulance service, mining, data centers, property taxes, school funding and infrastructure – may matter more than statewide messaging.
A DFL trifecta would give a Governor Klobuchar room to advance policy with fewer roadblocks. Republican gains could force bipartisan compromise or block major DFL priorities. If voters split their tickets, Minnesota could return to a divided-government model where narrow margins give individual legislators unusual leverage as we have seen in recent years.
Key Campaign Issues
• Affordability: Housing costs, property taxes, health care premiums and household budgets will be central in both the governor’s race and legislative campaigns.
• Fraud and accountability: Recent controversies involving public funds give Republicans a powerful line of attack and force Democrats to emphasize oversight and reform.
• Taxes and the budget: Candidates will debate whether Minnesota should cut taxes, preserve recent spending commitments or pursue a mix of targeted relief and fiscal restraint.
• Public safety and guns: School safety, gun policy and local law enforcement needs are likely to appear differently in metro, suburban and rural districts.
• Regional divides: The metro area, outer suburbs, the Iron Range and southern Minnesota may each move on different concerns, making statewide coalition-building essential.
Electoral Stakes
Minnesota’s 2026 election is not simply a choice between two gubernatorial nominees. It is a broader decision about how voters want the state to be governed after several years of narrow margins, ambitious policymaking, fiscal scrutiny and rising pressure on household budgets. The governor’s race will set the tone, but the Legislature will determine how much any governor can actually do.
AASPMN will provide a detailed report of the election results and what impact they are likely to have on our legislative priorities after the results are finalized.
Want more? Check out the October 2026 issue of AASP-MN News!