16 Million New Vehicles Not Sold in the U.S., But the Aftermarket Rolls Up Growth

New vehicle annual sales in the U.S. will fall by nearly 15 percent from 2020 to 2026, compared to the record-high yearly volume recorded between 2015 and 2019, according to the latest projections by Lang Marketing.

This new vehicle market dilemma is sending repercussions through the light vehicle aftermarket, which traditionally has relied on new auto sales to expand the nation’s vehicle population and stimulate aftermarket growth.

Through 2030 and beyond, this significant downturn of the new vehicle market will have a variety of consequences for the light vehicle aftermarket, some good and some not-so-good, but auto parts volume will continue to grow strongly, especially for Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars and light trucks. 

16 Million Fewer New Vehicles Sold

New car and light truck annual sales in the U.S. averaged 17.3 million vehicles between 2015 and 2019, a record-high level.

The onslaught of COVID-19 undercut the new vehicle market in the U.S., causing it to fall abruptly in 2020 to 14.7 million, down almost 20 percent from the previous year. Annual sales continued at low levels, with 14.9 million in 2021 and a slide to 13.8 million cars and light trucks in 2022. Annual sales averaged 15.5 in 2023 and 2024.

2025 New Vehicle Sales and Beyond

Lang Marketing projects that in 2025 and 2026, the new light vehicle market in the U.S. will be hit by tariffs and other factors, causing it to slip to an average yearly sales level of about 15.2 million.

New car and light truck volume will total over 16 million fewer cars and light trucks during 2020 through 2026 compared to sales at the 17.3 million annual average of the previous five years (2015 through 2019).

VIO Impact

The new vehicle shortfall between 2020 and 2026 will be a powerful downward force on the growth of vehicles in operation (VIO).

Nevertheless, the negative impact of lower new vehicle sales on the nation’s VIO will be largely offset by the reduction in the country’s automotive scrappage rate (starting in 2022) as the transportation needs of consumers and businesses are saving millions of cars and light trucks from the junk yard.

ICE Vehicle Population and Aftermarket Volume

While ICE vehicles will represent over 90 percent of the 16 million or so vehicles not sold from 2020 to 2026, they will constitute virtually all of the million cars and light trucks that will dodge the scrap heap over these seven years.

Since older vehicles require more repair parts per mile than newer models, the ICE vehicles that remain on the road due to lower scrappage represent much greater aftermarket product volume (through the end of this decade) than the ICE vehicles that have not entered service due to struggling new vehicle sales since 2020–more analysis of this in future issues of the weekly Lang iReport.

Aftermarket Impact

The average age of vehicles will climb, and the number of older cars and light trucks will reach historic high levels. Accordingly, older cars and light trucks will travel more miles, and their odometers will reach record levels.

This will provide a strong tailwind for aftermarket product sales through 2030.

Foreign Nameplate Aftermarket

The foreign nameplate aftermarket will be boosted in future years by the growing foreign nameplate share of new car and light truck sales.

However, the moderate auto scrappage rates resulting from the struggling new vehicle market will keep millions of older domestic light vehicles on the road, which will slow the pace of the inevitable growth of the foreign nameplate aftermarket.

Repair-Age Sweet-Spot

The ongoing reduction in new vehicle volume is working its way through the VIO age mix to the repair-age sweet-spot (vehicles six to 10 years of age).

At mid-year 2030, the repair-age sweet-spot population will be down by nearly 15 percent, compared to the number of cars and light trucks in the six-to-10-year age bracket seven years earlier.

Aftermarket Consequences

The falling population of the six-to-10-year repair-age sweet-spot will not reduce aftermarket volume because miles on U.S. roads, which will continue to increase, will be shifted to older vehicles that generate more aftermarket product volume per mile than newer models.

Overall Impact

Low new car and light truck annual sales between 2020 and 2026 (and, perhaps, beyond) will be positive for the aftermarket (especially ICE vehicle product volume) through this decade. The only products negatively affected will be those with relatively high rates of use among newer vehicles, such as tires and selected accessories.

Six Major Takeaways

•  Lang Marketing projects that new vehicle sales in the U.S. will fall by about 15 percent between 2020 and 2026, compared to the average annual volume of the new light vehicle market from 2015 to 2019.

•  An estimated 16 million fewer cars and light trucks will be sold in the U.S. from 2020 through 2026, compared to the record-high 17.3 million annual average volume of the new light vehicle market from 2015 to 2019.

•  The new vehicle sales shortfall from 2020 to 2026 will be a powerful downward force on the growth of vehicles in operation (VIO) across the U.S. Nevertheless, the negative impact of the faltering new vehicle market on the nation’s VIO will be largely offset by the drop in the country’s annual automotive scrappage rate. Lang Marketing projects yearly increases in the light vehicle population to the end of the decade.

•  Lower new vehicle sales and moderate scrappage rates will lead to an increase in the average age of vehicles and a rise in the population of older cars and light trucks. Consequently, older vehicles will be driven more miles, which will create growth in the aftermarket.

•  ICE vehicles will represent over 90 percent of the 16 million vehicles not sold from 2020 to 2026, but they will constitute virtually all of the millions of cars and light trucks that will dodge the scrap heap during those seven years. The older ICE vehicles that remain on the road due to lower scrappage represent much greater aftermarket product volume (through the end of this decade) than the ICE vehicles that fail to enter service due to the struggling new vehicle market.

•  The 16 million light vehicles not sold in the U.S. from 2020 to 2026 (compared to annual new vehicle sales during the previous five years) will have a variety of consequences for the aftermarket. Still, auto parts volume will continue to grow strongly, especially for ICE cars and light trucks. For a 10-year perspective of the ICE aftermarket (2016 to 2026), see the 2026 Lang Aftermarket Annual. Please visit bit.ly/4luH7CN for the Table of Contents and bit.ly/4nUbnZk for the Order Form.

Want more? Check out the September 2025 issue of AASP-MN News!