Winter and Q1: Here for Real

by Linden Wicklund, AASPMN Executive Director

Finally, we are seeing some real winter weather and the business boost that comes with it!

Two very mild winters, compounded with other factors, have taken their toll on car counts. Quarter One (Q1) is also in full swing, which means finalizing the books from 2025 and setting into motion plans for 2026. Politics are certainly adding a layer of complexity to daily activities for some shops and customers right now. Overall, the level of business uncertainty that existed at this time last year was much worse, so businesses can now start to plan further out.

In this month’s feature article—and in a recent collision workshop—AASPMN takes a closer look at industry forecasting to help shops plan for the year ahead. During her January 14 workshop, Kristen Felder shared data showing that collision car counts have been declining by about 5% annually and are expected to continue falling. As vehicle technology advances, the industry could see an overall reduction of more than 30% in collision repair jobs. Smaller claims, which often deliver higher profit margins, are being affected the most. Mechanical shops are also experiencing shifts in job patterns as vehicle technology evolves. Together, these changes are reshaping staffing needs, shop capabilities, and the physical footprint of today’s automotive businesses.

When AASPMN surveyed members in Q4 of 2025, the projections of where shops expected to be in five years were particularly telling. Around 50 percent of shops are looking to expand the scope and size of their business, while simultaneously losing top talent that is critical for profitability. Managing those two things in concert takes active planning. The number of shops that will be changing hands is also staggering. Twenty-five percent of owners are looking to purchase another location with almost that many looking to sell. Shops cannot be reactive and expect to be thriving in five years.

•  Selling business: 18 percent

•  Purchasing an additional shop: 25 percent

•  Expanding the size or capabilities of your business: 48 percent

•  Retirements of top talent/key employees: 41 percent

•  Hiring to increase the size of your team: 59 percent

To help members navigate these changes, AASPMN has a full year of education, networking, and new member benefits planned. If you’re not already a member—or know a shop that isn’t—keep in mind that membership dues often pay for themselves quickly when shops apply what they learn and take advantage of available savings. In many cases, just one repair done differently can generate more than the cost of membership.

The AASPMN Leadership Conference and Annual Meeting is the largest gathering of members each year, so it is the most important benefit to participate in. April 29-30 at Mystic Lake Center, industry leaders will be gathering to network, compare notes, learn and meet with suppliers. This year will be a deep dive into what it takes to grow your business in today’s world, including future staffing, AI implementation, buying or selling a shop, profitability in estimates and repair orders and more. Adaptability and accountability will be the overarching themes that provide the mindset and tactical skills needed for leaders and shops to thrive.

I look forward to seeing you at the conference and throughout the year!

Want more? Check out the February 2026 issue of AASP-MN News!