ICE Vehicles Will Dominate the Aftermarket for Decades

For years, headlines in the U.S. media have shouted about surging Electric Vehicle (EV) sales and how EVs will soon replace Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles.

However, an examination of EV sales and their impact reveals a different picture and underscores that EVs will not displace ICE vehicles in the U.S. aftermarket any time soon. 

The U.S. vehicle population has a much larger segment of older cars and light trucks than any other country with a VIO (vehicles in operation) of comparable size. Accordingly, it will take many years (even decades) for EVs to have a significant impact on ICE aftermarket sales in the U.S. 

EV Sales in the U.S.

New Electric Vehicle sales in the U.S. are lagging behind many other major countries. Sales of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) in the U.S. reached 1.3 million in 2024, accounting for approximately eight percent of the total new vehicle market of 15.9 million, which was about 10 percent below the average yearly sales from 2015 to 2019.

Worldwide, BEVs topped 20 percent of auto sales in 2024, more than double their share of U.S. volume. Lang Marketing expects this difference to increase throughout the decade, reaching almost a fourfold spread by 2030.

Differentiating EVs

There are three types of electric vehicles: hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). They do not all have the same aftermarket impact.

HEVs and PHEVs are dual-powered (hybrids), utilizing an internal combustion engine and an electric motor that work in cooperation. Accordingly, fossil fuels power a large portion of their miles.

Focus on BEVs

When measuring the disruptive impact of EVs on the U.S. aftermarket, it is best to focus on BEVs, as they differ significantly from the other types of electric vehicles (HEVs and PHEVs), which rely heavily on internal combustion engines.

BEV Annual Volume

BEVs represented less than 40 percent of the new EV vehicle market in the U.S. from 2016 through 2024. Accordingly, BEVs generated only three percent of new car and light truck volume in the U.S. during these years.

BEV Make Small VIO Dent

Battery Electric Vehicles represent an even smaller portion of cars and light trucks on U.S. roads. Between 2016 and 2023, BEVs climbed from about 0.1 percent to just over 1.0 percent  of the nation’s VIO.

Record-high BEV sales in 2024 did not push their VIO share past 1.7 percent, only about one-fifth of their 2024 new vehicle market share.

Aftermarket Vehicles

Lang Marketing has developed the concept of Aftermarket Vehicles (cars and light trucks at least four years old) to highlight the fact that a vehicle’s age is a critical factor determining its aftermarket impact. Aftermarket Vehicles generate over 95 percent of the nation’s aftermarket product volume, excluding tires and accessories.

In 2024, BEVs represented less than 0.6 percent of aftermarket vehicles in the U.S. This underscores the significant time lag between the share of EVs in new vehicle sales and their impact on the aftermarket.

More analysis of the importance of aftermarket vehicles will be presented in future issues of The Lang iReport.

BEV Aftermarket Impact

So far, BEVs have replaced only a minuscule number of ICE vehicles at least four years old. Lang Marketing estimates that BEVs eliminated less than 1.0 percent of the ICE aftermarket volume last year.

Aftermarket Sales of BEVs

BEVs do not share many operating components with ICE cars and light trucks. Nevertheless, BEVs still require some aftermarket products, primarily tires, accessories, batteries and electrical components.

BEV Impact on Aftermarket by 2030

Lang Marketing estimates that less than five percent of ICE vehicle product volume (excluding tires and certain accessories) will be eliminated by BEVs in 2030 compared to what it would have been without BEVs on the road.

ICE vehicles are expected to experience substantial aftermarket growth between 2024 and 2030. In fact, the annual rate of ICE aftermarket product growth between 2024 and 2030 will significantly outpace the “loss” of ICE volume due to BEVs during these six years.

Six Major Takeaways

•  Last year, new Battery Electric Vehicles accounted for over 20 percent of worldwide auto sales compared to only eight percent in the U.S. Lang Marketing expects this difference to increase throughout the decade.

•  There are three types of electric vehicles: hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). To accurately measure the aftermarket impact of electric vehicles in the U.S., it is necessary to focus on BEVs, the only EVs without an internal combustion engine.  

•  Since 2016, BEVs have accounted for only about three percent of the new light vehicle sales in the U.S. Their impact on the nation’s VIO has been even less. BEVs climbed from 0.3 percent of total cars and light trucks on U.S. roads in 2018 to about 1.5 percent by 2024.  

•  Aftermarket vehicles (cars and light trucks at least four years old) is a concept developed by Lang Marketing to illustrate the differences in the aftermarket impact of light vehicles according to their age. Aftermarket Vehicles generate over 95 percent of the total aftermarket product volume, excluding tires and accessories. In 2024, BEVs represented less than 1.0 percent of aftermarket vehicles in the U.S.  

•  In 2024, ICE vehicles (including Hybrids) generated over 99 percent of the light vehicle aftermarket product volume despite BEVs reaching a record-high share of the new vehicle market. The nation’s VIO has a much larger segment of older cars and light trucks than any other country with a comparable number of vehicles on the road. Accordingly, it will take many years (even decades) for BEVs to have a significant impact on the ICE aftermarket.

•  Lang Marketing estimates that ICE product volume (excluding tires and certain accessories) will be reduced by less than five percent during 2030 compared to what it would have been without BEVs on the road. The annual rate of ICE vehicle product growth between 2022 and 2030 will significantly outpace the “loss” of ICE volume caused by BEVs during these five years. 

See the 2026 Lang Aftermarket for a 10-year perspective of the size and growth of the ICE light vehicle aftermarket, with projections to 2026. 

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